Two weeks back I derisively mentioned Microsoft's Live.com gadget creation contest (where they're trying to egg on development of gadgets for their web app by contest giveaways). Now Ebay is getting into the game - they've announced prizes for the best applications that hook into Ebay, extending the value of their services. So Ebay gets a more vibrant developer community, with more tools and services for their highly lucrative clients, and the developers get...a remote chance at winning some token prize.

As a professional software developer and enterpreneur, this serves as a huge omen, yelling out "There is no money to be made in this market". The normal carrot that draws developers into a niche is revenue, with which there is little need for additional incentives (e.g. Why would I care about your token game machine when I'm planning on selling 50,000 copies of my software at $49.95 each?). So when an organization becomes desperate enough to start doing giveaways, you know that niche is undergoing pretty unhealthy times.